Saturday, April 27, 2013

Surfliner to increase its bicycle capacity

March performance results are available

I delayed in reporting March's figures and luckily it turns out that it was a good thing as the agenda for the May 2nd Technical Advisory Committee explains the downturn and gives some interesting other information.

The Surfliner's six month ridership increase was broken in March, but this may not have been an actual decrease. Apparently "This decline appears to be an anomaly in Amtrak’s reporting system due to e-Ticketing reconciliation," though I'm not entirely certain as to how that works and am open to suggestions. It does lead me to believe that April will be a return to the growth that we have been seeing over the past year.

More notably, Caltrans is working on increasing the bicycle capacity for the Surfliner, bringing it to 13 bikes per car, to be completed by July or August. This is accompanying the $5 charge and mandatory reservations for bicycles starting in June revealed with the new schedule. Hopefully there won't be any SNAFUs related to the Amfleet train set on the Surfliner (though this may be part of the reason for Comet cars on the San Joaquin).

With that in mind, this does have the potential to be a major revenue earner for the Surfliner. Assuming no bicycle capacity in the cafe car and one of the coaches is a Superliner, there should be room for 50 bicycles on board. Even if, on average, each train carries only 25 bicycles over its entire journey, that would still result in about a million dollars of revenue for the Surfliner, decreasing the total public subsidy required.



Ridership

Pacific Surfliner -4.1%
Coast Starlight +6.4%
Capital Corridor -4.7%
San Joaquin +7.6%
Amtrak +1.9%
Metrolink -1.3%
Coaster -4.9%

Note that Metrolink ridership is up on the Orange County Line, but down on the Ventura County Line.

Revenue

Pacific Surfliner +4.6%
Coast Starlight +6.2%
Capital Corridor -0.9%
San Joaquin +2.6%
Amtrak +8.1%

On time performance

LOSSAN-North 85.2%
LOSSAN-South 86.2%
LOSSAN Overall 87.3%
Metrolink OC 97.0%
Metrolink VC 94.6%
Coaster 98.6%

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Seat mile and passenger mile costs for Amtrak

Using Amtrak's FY2012 data, and somewhat inspired by Mike Hick's spreadsheet,  let's take a gander at how much it costs Amtrak to move a single seat a single mile.

Here's every route listed from most expensive per seat mile to least expensive per seat mile. Note that the Pere Marquette and Ethan Allen Express don't have enough data to be properly useful.






Cost per seat mile
Cost per passenger mile
Ticket yield per mile
Ticket yield to seat costs
Occupancy
Hoosier State
$0.391
$0.835
$0.153
39.09%
46.81%
New Haven-Springfield
$0.347
$0.704
$0.338
97.44%
49.30%
Auto Train
$0.334
$0.481
$0.320
95.76%
69.48%
Sunset Limited
$0.333
$0.655
$0.138
41.29%
50.90%
Cardinal
$0.310
$0.537
$0.156
50.53%
57.62%
Acela
$0.305
$0.487
$0.787
258.48%
62.50%
Capitol Limited
$0.284
$0.416
$0.181
63.62%
68.20%
Coast Starlight
$0.280
$0.454
$0.183
65.27%
61.75%
Cascades
$0.279
$0.522
$0.233
83.54%
53.51%
Heartland Flyer
$0.276
$0.605
$0.138
49.82%
45.60%
Pere Marquette
$0.275
$0.458
$0.246
89.62%
60.00%
Crescent
$0.261
$0.476
$0.201
77.03%
54.79%
Adirondack
$0.260
$0.321
$0.167
64.04%
81.08%
Silver Star
$0.253
$0.385
$0.160
63.26%
65.55%
City of New Orleans
$0.251
$0.366
$0.175
69.70%
68.51%
Texas Eagle
$0.245
$0.344
$0.143
58.48%
71.28%
Southwest Chief
$0.241
$0.368
$0.140
58.12%
65.58%
California Zephyr
$0.235
$0.401
$0.153
65.05%
58.70%
Silver Meteor
$0.227
$0.351
$0.172
75.64%
64.67%
Lake Shore Limited
$0.210
$0.333
$0.160
76.47%
62.96%
Kansas City-St. Louis
$0.209
$0.427
$0.138
65.95%
49.02%
Empire Builder
$0.202
$0.329
$0.167
82.63%
61.49%
San Joaquins
$0.202
$0.524
$0.232
115.27%
38.46%
Capitol Corridor
$0.196
$0.680
$0.250
128.04%
28.78%
Wolverines
$0.195
$0.384
$0.175
89.85%
50.77%
Pennsylvanian
$0.194
$0.325
$0.192
98.78%
59.84%
Vermonter
$0.193
$0.458
$0.200
103.82%
42.06%
Chicago-St. Louis
$0.188
$0.391
$0.131
69.59%
48.08%
Blue Water
$0.187
$0.397
$0.157
84.03%
47.06%
Northeast Regional
$0.186
$0.386
$0.430
230.89%
48.28%
Illinois Zephyr
$0.183
$0.443
$0.143
78.51%
41.18%
Carolinian
$0.181
$0.233
$0.210
115.84%
77.78%
Piedmont
$0.180
$0.384
$0.164
91.26%
46.88%
Empire Service
$0.172
$0.513
$0.339
197.07%
33.53%
Pacific Surfliner
$0.165
$0.529
$0.262
158.90%
31.15%
Palmetto
$0.164
$0.347
$0.201
122.02%
47.37%
Keystone Service
$0.159
$0.394
$0.272
170.62%
40.43%
Hiawathas
$0.155
$0.410
$0.242
156.07%
37.74%
Illini
$0.154
$0.355
$0.152
98.60%
43.48%
Washington-Newport News
$0.151
$0.252
$0.271
179.15%
60.00%
Downeaster
$0.132
$0.344
$0.177
133.64%
38.36%
Washington-Lynchburg
$0.125
$0.184
$0.259
207.59%
67.86%
Maple Leaf
$0.120
$0.227
$0.195
162.86%
52.63%
Ethan Allen Express
$0.000
$0.000
$0.000
0.00%
50.00%


As Mike Hick noted, there is some weirdness with certain routes that appear to have a percentage of their miles charged to the Northeast Regional instead (though note the oddity of the Downeaster's costs when it doesn't use the Northeast Corridor while the Washington-Newport News trains do). Aside from that however, there a few things that we can see.

Firstly, there is the unsurprising fact that running one or two coaches per locomotive (as is the case with the New Haven-Springfield Shuttle and the Heartland Flyer) is rather expensive. These two routes should be converted to diesel multiple units as soon as practical. High costs for the Adirondacker and the Cascades are probably related to border crossing and carrying Talgo maintenance representatives respectively. Incidentally, I would not be surprised if, should the Hoosier State indeed be retained with state support, its performance improves remarkably. As a state supported service, Amtrak would be required to credit the Hoosier State and Indiana with revenue appropriate to the cost of hauling cars to and from Beech Grove, something I strongly suspect does not currently occur.

Rather interestingly, there doesn't appear to be much if any cost difference for using bilevels instead of single level equipment. However, this could simply mean the greater capacity of bilevels is used to allow shorter train lengths or that the cost difference is wiped out by using allocated costs. 

Unsurprisingly, sleeper service and dining cars on the long distance trains result in a significant increase in costs. The Silver Meteor is 38% more per seat-mile and the Silver Star 54% more per seat-mile compared to the all coach Palmetto running along most of the same route. Using this consist list and this site for car capacity figures,  the Palmetto has 311 seats plus diner and baggage car while the Meteor and Star possess 236 coach seats and 90/60 sleeper "seats" as well as diner, lounge, and baggage making them a good point of comparison. Similarly, I am unsurprised at the high costs of the Acela. It has a small number of seats, a high level of service, and probably some rather extravagant energy consumption costs.

Now, the long distance trains do somewhat better on a passenger mile basis.




Cost per passenger mile
Cost per seat mile
Ticket yield per mile
Ticket yield to seat costs
Occupancy
Hoosier State
$0.835
$0.391
$0.153
39.09%
46.81%
New Haven-Springfield
$0.704
$0.347
$0.338
97.44%
49.30%
Capitol Corridor
$0.680
$0.196
$0.250
128.04%
28.78%
Sunset Limited
$0.655
$0.333
$0.138
41.29%
50.90%
Heartland Flyer
$0.605
$0.276
$0.138
49.82%
45.60%
Cardinal
$0.537
$0.310
$0.156
50.53%
57.62%
Pacific Surfliner
$0.529
$0.165
$0.262
158.90%
31.15%
San Joaquins
$0.524
$0.202
$0.232
115.27%
38.46%
Cascades
$0.522
$0.279
$0.233
83.54%
53.51%
Empire Service
$0.513
$0.172
$0.339
197.07%
33.53%
Acela
$0.487
$0.305
$0.787
258.48%
62.50%
Auto Train
$0.481
$0.334
$0.320
95.76%
69.48%
Crescent
$0.476
$0.261
$0.201
77.03%
54.79%
Vermonter
$0.458
$0.193
$0.200
103.82%
42.06%
Pere Marquette
$0.458
$0.275
$0.246
89.62%
60.00%
Coast Starlight
$0.454
$0.280
$0.183
65.27%
61.75%
Illinois Zephyr
$0.443
$0.183
$0.143
78.51%
41.18%
Kansas City-St. Louis
$0.427
$0.209
$0.138
65.95%
49.02%
Capitol Limited
$0.416
$0.284
$0.181
63.62%
68.20%
Hiawathas
$0.410
$0.155
$0.242
156.07%
37.74%
California Zephyr
$0.401
$0.235
$0.153
65.05%
58.70%
Blue Water
$0.397
$0.187
$0.157
84.03%
47.06%
Keystone Service
$0.394
$0.159
$0.272
170.62%
40.43%
Chicago-St. Louis
$0.391
$0.188
$0.131
69.59%
48.08%
Northeast Regional
$0.386
$0.186
$0.430
230.89%
48.28%
Silver Star
$0.385
$0.253
$0.160
63.26%
65.55%
Wolverines
$0.384
$0.195
$0.175
89.85%
50.77%
Piedmont
$0.384
$0.180
$0.164
91.26%
46.88%
Southwest Chief
$0.368
$0.241
$0.140
58.12%
65.58%
City of New Orleans
$0.366
$0.251
$0.175
69.70%
68.51%
Illini
$0.355
$0.154
$0.152
98.60%
43.48%
Silver Meteor
$0.351
$0.227
$0.172
75.64%
64.67%
Palmetto
$0.347
$0.164
$0.201
122.02%
47.37%
Downeaster
$0.344
$0.132
$0.177
133.64%
38.36%
Texas Eagle
$0.344
$0.245
$0.143
58.48%
71.28%
Lake Shore Limited
$0.333
$0.210
$0.160
76.47%
62.96%
Empire Builder
$0.329
$0.202
$0.167
82.63%
61.49%
Pennsylvanian
$0.325
$0.194
$0.192
98.78%
59.84%
Adirondack
$0.321
$0.260
$0.167
64.04%
81.08%
Washington-Newport News
$0.252
$0.151
$0.271
179.15%
60.00%
Carolinian
$0.233
$0.181
$0.210
115.84%
77.78%
Maple Leaf
$0.227
$0.120
$0.195
162.86%
52.63%
Washington-Lynchburg
$0.184
$0.125
$0.259
207.59%
67.86%
Ethan Allen Express
$0.000
$0.000
$0.000
0.00%
50.00%


While they aren't all near the bottom, and a couple of trains do outperform them, on average the long distance trains cost less than other trains per passenger mile. This is strictly a function of occupancy however. Cheap trains with few passengers are more expensive in that metric than are expensive trains that are well filled.
Since the long distance trains have a sufficiently higher occupancy ratio than do most of the corridor trains, their per passenger-mile figures tend to drop below those of their emptier companions. Note however that the significantly higher occupancy ratios on the Silver Star and Silver Meteor do not make them cheaper than their compatriot the Palmetto or corridor trains with high occupancy ratios such as the Pennsylvanian.



Occupancy
Adirondack
81.08%
Carolinian
77.78%
Texas Eagle
71.28%
Auto Train
69.48%
City of New Orleans
68.51%
Capitol Limited
68.20%
Washington-Lynchburg
67.86%
Southwest Chief
65.58%
Silver Star
65.55%
Silver Meteor
64.67%
Lake Shore Limited
62.96%
Acela
62.50%
Coast Starlight
61.75%
Empire Builder
61.49%
Pere Marquette
60.00%
Washington-Newport News
60.00%
Pennsylvanian
59.84%
California Zephyr
58.70%
Cardinal
57.62%
Crescent
54.79%
Cascades
53.51%
Maple Leaf
52.63%
Sunset Limited
50.90%
Wolverines
50.77%
Ethan Allen Express
50.00%
New Haven-Springfield
49.30%
Kansas City-St. Louis
49.02%
Northeast Regional
48.28%
Chicago-St. Louis
48.08%
Palmetto
47.37%
Blue Water
47.06%
Piedmont
46.88%
Hoosier State
46.81%
Heartland Flyer
45.60%
Illini
43.48%
Vermonter
42.06%
Illinois Zephyr
41.18%
Keystone Service
40.43%
San Joaquins
38.46%
Downeaster
38.36%
Hiawathas
37.74%
Empire Service
33.53%
Pacific Surfliner
31.15%
Capitol Corridor
28.78%

Honestly, what this really tells us is that Amtrak and the various states, especially California, need to put far more money into advertising corridor services. Taking the example of the Pacific Surfliner for parochial reasons, a 60% increase in passenger-miles would be easily within the capacity of the existing equipment, would drop the cost per passenger-mile below every long distance train, and would result in  the the train running close to break even.

Lastly, there is what I think of as the "Making the effort" line





Ticket yield to seat costs
Acela
258.48%
Northeast Regional
230.89%
Washington-Lynchburg
207.59%
Empire Service
197.07%
Washington-Newport News
179.15%
Keystone Service
170.62%
Maple Leaf
162.86%
Pacific Surfliner
158.90%
Hiawathas
156.07%
Downeaster
133.64%
Capitol Corridor
128.04%
Palmetto
122.02%
Carolinian
115.84%
San Joaquins
115.27%
Vermonter
103.82%
Pennsylvanian
98.78%
Illini
98.60%
New Haven-Springfield
97.44%
Auto Train
95.76%
Piedmont
91.26%
Wolverines
89.85%
Pere Marquette
89.62%
Blue Water
84.03%
Cascades
83.54%
Empire Builder
82.63%
Illinois Zephyr
78.51%
Crescent
77.03%
Lake Shore Limited
76.47%
Silver Meteor
75.64%
City of New Orleans
69.70%
Chicago-St. Louis
69.59%
Kansas City-St. Louis
65.95%
Coast Starlight
65.27%
California Zephyr
65.05%
Adirondack
64.04%
Capitol Limited
63.62%
Silver Star
63.26%
Texas Eagle
58.48%
Southwest Chief
58.12%
Cardinal
50.53%
Heartland Flyer
49.82%
Sunset Limited
41.29%
Hoosier State
39.09%
Ethan Allen Express
0.00%



Every train which is less than 100% has its ticketing currently priced such that even if every seat were sold out for the entire journey at the current average fare per seat-mile, it could not possibly make back its costs. Note that this includes every long distance sleeper train. This is not an inherently bad thing: Subsidized rail service as a public good is a perfectly acceptable goal. It is, however, distressing to see every luxury long distance train in that category, especially the Auto Train, which does not have to concern itself with occupancy issues due to passenger turnover.

There's another matter which should address itself to our attention and to the defenders of the long distance trains as they currently stand. The Palmetto, which is all coach as we know, has an average ticket yield of 20.1¢ per passenger mile. This is rather intriguing because it ties it for second alongside the Crescent for highest yielding long distance passenger train after the Auto Train despite the fact that it possesses no sleeping passengers. With an average trip length of 436 miles, these aren't short little jaunts either, but are comparable to the long distance coach trips of other trains. This strongly suggests that the coach fares of the rest of the long distance network could stand to be raised by 50-100%, gradually of course, but raised sharply nonetheless. This would also raise the price of sleepers by several cents per mile, of course, as they pay a basic rail fare, but that's hardly objectionable and would help to improve the financial performance of the train.